MS14: Modelling and Optimization in Epidemiology

The World Health Organization (WHO) has emphasized in various occasions that infectious diseases are of a major international health concern. Especially, vector-borne diseases such as Malaria, Dengue, ZIKA and yellow fever have caused more than 1 million deaths every year. Due to the mostly unknown vector population dynamics, these diseases call for an effective modelling and analysis supported by meticulous scientific arguments, large data sets and computer simulations to obtain an understanding of the epidemics pattern. A series of deterministic and stochastic models have been developed to study the evolution of epidemics of certain diseases.

This minisymposium aims to be a forum for scientists who have been working with infectious disease models, corresponding optimal control problems and analysis of the underlying dynamical systems. The meeting will surely be used to trigger discussions on novel ideas, combine different aspects from different schools, hence initiate a progress in the model development and actions leading to fostering joint work.

Tuesday, April 13, 10:20-12:00

1. 10:20 Dipo Aldila, Gracia M. Simorangkir, Hengki Tasman, Bevina D. Handari, Karunia P. Wijaya, The Impact of Novel M72/AS01E Vaccine on Tuberculosis Prevention Strategy (no recording)
   
2. 10:45 Naleen Chaminda Ganegoda, Karunia Putra Wijaya, Miracle Amadi, Hasitha Erandi, Yashika Jayathunga, Assessing COVID-19 Incidence through the Context of Spatial Modeling: A Case Study from Sri Lanka (no recording)
   
3. 11:10 Edy Soewono, An Analysis on the Second Wave Covid-19 After Relaxation (no recording)
   
4. 11:35 Chaditha Hedhani Attanayake, Sanjeewa Perera, Prabath Liyanage, Comparison of Performances of Selected Forecasting Models: An Application to Dengue Data in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Tuesday, April 13, 14:00-15:40

1. 14:00 Hasitha Erandi, Karunia Putra Wijaya, Naleen Ganegoda, Thomas Götz, An Analysis of Connectivity Between Dengue and Climate Factors in Sri Lanka Based on Field Data
2. 14:25 Chinalu Miracle Amadi, Heikki Haario, Parameter identification and forecast with a biased model
3. 14:50 Udana Wetthasinghe, Chaditha Attanayake, Prabhath Liyanage, Sanjeewa Perera, Proactive Dengue Management System Synergize by an Exponential Smoothing Model
4. 15:15 Peter Heidrich, Thomas Götz, Parameter Estimation via Adjoint Functions in Epidemiological Reaction-Diffusion Models

Tuesday, April 13, 16:00-17:40

1. 16:00 Wolfgang Bock, The Problem of a small Mitigation Interval for COVID-19
2. 16:25 Isti Rodiah, Patrizio Vanella, Alexander Kuhlmann, Wolfgang Bock, Lange Berit, Age-specific Contribution of Contacts to Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany
3. 16:50 Moritz Schäfer, The Impact of Travellers to the COVID-19 Disease in Germany (no recording)
   
4. 17:15 Arsha Sherly, Simulating the Spread of Zika Virus Disease Using a Multi-Patch Approach
   
   Karunia Putra Wijaya, An optimal decision framework for optimizing the new normal related to COVID-19 in Germany (replacement talk)